Myanmar armed groups take advantage of rainy season to increase attacks on military

Yangon [Myanmar], August 1: The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group in Myanmar, is taking advantage of the monsoon rains that have swept through the country to intensify attacks on the Myanmar military in Rakhine state, according to Nikkei Asia.
The AA said it was tightly controlling the muddy, rugged terrain, following operational plans that involved both guerrilla tactics often favored by insurgents and conventional military operations, according to Nikkei Asia on July 31.
The AA is looking to target long-standing military outposts, border camps and heavily fortified operational command posts that are key to the Myanmar military's assertion of power.
"We mainly employ insurgent tactics, combined with some features of conventional warfare," the AA's media arm and its political arm, the United Arakan League (ULA), told Nikkei Asia in a recent interview.
The effectiveness of the tactic is reflected in the AA's recent successes in a months-long offensive to seize control of Nagpali, a popular beach in Rakhine State, which lies along Myanmar's western coast and borders Bangladesh.
The AA also said that changing weather conditions had been factored into the operational plan for their forces to gain full control of Rakhine State, a different environment than the previous two monsoons since the Myanmar military seized power in a coup in February 2021.
"We are prepared to take better advantage of the changing weather [during] the monsoon season. [As we may] also face. deployment issues during the rainy season and challenges in drone strikes targeting [enemy] positions," the AA/ULA said.
Some Myanmar political observers, such as independent analyst David Scott Mathieson, say this year's fighting is an escalation of the previous two rainy seasons, which began around June and ended in September. "The fighting since November 2023 has really been a cold season, then summer, and now [a] monsoon offensive. This is the most intense fighting since the AA was formed," Mathieson said.
The AA, founded in 2009, officially claims to have about "40,000 active members, not counting thousands of auxiliary members."
While questioning the accuracy of AA's troop numbers, some Southeast Asian military intelligence officials admit that the group's multi-pronged attacks have pushed the Myanmar military into a corner, according to Nikkei Asia.
The AA claims to have defeated two of the three Military Operations Commands (MOCs), the Myanmar army's well-armed division-level strategic bases, in Rakhine state.
"Our troops have captured two MOCs in Rakhine state. and are in military confrontation with forces from MOC-5. We [also] defeated [troops from three light infantry divisions] in several armed areas," the AA/ULA asserted.
The AA has also been "playing quite smart in terms of military operations," Mathieson said, targeting MOCs as part of a broader campaign to achieve strategic and symbolic gains. "Their strategy is to take over all the townships in Rakhine State," he said.
There is currently no information on the reaction of the Myanmar military government to AA's statement.
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper